Burnley 0–3 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Liverpool

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain 88'

N. Phillips 52'

R. Firmino 43'

5/19/2021

Premier League · Round 37Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley24%

×Draw23%

Liverpool53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.77

Burnley

1.11

Liverpool

1.77

Liverpool creates 59% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

0.96

creates per match

1.61

1.94

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Liverpool

1.26

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Liverpool+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

47%

Burnley or Liverpool

77%

Draw or Liverpool

76%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

9%

Liverpool wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

67%

Burnley 2+ goals

30%

Burnley 3+ goals

10%

Liverpool 1+ goals

83%

Liverpool 2+ goals

53%

Liverpool 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

31%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.26 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Liverpool defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Burnley scores more

24%

level

23%

Liverpool scores more

53%

Liverpool at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

Nathaniel Phillips

Liverpool · D

8.9

Match Events

43'

R. Firmino↳ A. Robertson

52'

N. Phillips↳ S. Mane

76'

J. Cork← M. Vydra

81'

R. Firmino← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

87'

G. Wijnaldum← J. Milner

88'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain↳ A. Robertson

90+2'

S. Mane← K. Tsimikas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyLiverpool

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots20

6Corners7

10Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots20

4On Target3

3Off Target9

3Blocked8

6Inside Box15

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

389Total Passes584

302Accurate Passes496

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Offsides1