Liverpool 1–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aston Villa

Roberto Firmino 89'

J. Ramsey 27'

5/20/2023

Premier League · Round 37Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Liverpool51%

×Draw24%

Aston Villa26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.16

Liverpool

1.73

Aston Villa

1.16

Liverpool creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 24 away

1.83

creates per match

1.17

1.15

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Liverpool

1.83

Aston Villa

1.17

allows per match

Liverpool

1.15

Aston Villa

1.63

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.10scores more

Aston Villa+0.04on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

74%

Liverpool or Aston Villa

76%

Draw or Aston Villa

49%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

27%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

82%

Liverpool 2+ goals

52%

Liverpool 3+ goals

25%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

69%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

32%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

66%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 30 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.83 + Aston Villa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Aston Villa attack 1.17 + Liverpool defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Liverpool scores more

51%

level

24%

Aston Villa scores more

26%

Liverpool at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Douglas Luiz

Aston Villa · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

Ibrahima Konaté

27'

J. Ramsey↳ Douglas Luiz

45'

Tyrone Mings

52'

Lucas Digne

53'

Álex Moreno← L. Digne

53'

A. Young← L. Bailey

56'

Cody GakpoGoal cancelled

63'

Diogo Jota← C. Jones

65'

E. Buendía← Álex Moreno

66'

Trent Alexander-Arnold

72'

J. Milner← J. Henderson

72'

K. Tsimikas← A. Robertson

72'

Roberto Firmino← L. Díaz

77'

80'

81'

87'

87'

L. Dendoncker← Douglas Luiz

89'

Roberto Firmino↳ Mohamed Salah

90+6'

Ezri Konsa

90+1'

Ashley Young

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolAston

Overview

66%Possession34%

10Total Shots6

0.75Expected Goals (xG)1.35

9Corners3

16Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots6

5On Target3

1Off Target2

4Blocked1

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

510Total Passes267

430Accurate Passes178

84%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls13

3Yellow Cards5

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Liverpool vs Aston Villa

Liverpool and Aston Villa drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 20, 2023.

Goals: J. Ramsey (27'), Roberto Firmino (89').

Liverpool controlled possession (66%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Anfield in Liverpool.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Liverpool vs Aston Villa