Aston Villa 1–3 Liverpool: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.43

Aston Villa

1.37

Liverpool

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

1.42

creates per match

1.61

1.24

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.42

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.24

Liverpool

1.32

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.33scores more

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

61%

Aston Villa or Liverpool

75%

Draw or Liverpool

64%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

16%

Liverpool wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

75%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

40%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

16%

Liverpool 1+ goals

76%

Liverpool 2+ goals

42%

Liverpool 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

48%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 24 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.42 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.37

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Aston Villa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aston Villa scores more

36%

level

25%

Liverpool scores more

39%

Liverpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

A. Robertson

Liverpool · D

8.0

Match Events

5'

Mohamed Salah↳ A. Robertson

37'

V. van Dijk↳ Mohamed Salah

59'

O. Watkins↳ Douglas Luiz

66'

N. Keïta← Thiago Alcântara

67'

H. Elliott← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

79'

Stefan Bajčetić← J. Henderson

79'

J. Gomez← T. Alexander-Arnold

81'

Stefan Bajčetić

85'

Philippe Coutinho← B. Kamara

86'

L. Dendoncker← L. Bailey

86'

D. Ings← E. Buendía

88'

B. Doak← D. Núñez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonLiverpool

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots16

0Corners6

7Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots16

6On Target9

3Off Target6

3Blocked1

10Inside Box10

2Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

471Total Passes514

381Accurate Passes420

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls12

3Offsides3