Liverpool U19 2–1 Crvena Zvezda U19: Result & Stats

Liverpool U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Crvena Zvezda U19

R. Williams 90+2'

Rafael Camacho 86'

D. Joveljić 76'

10/24/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Langtree Park (St Helens, Merseyside)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Liverpool U1974%

×Draw15%

Crvena Zvezda U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool U19Expected goals in this matchCrvena Zvezda U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.05

Liverpool U19

2.85

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.05

Liverpool U19 creates 171% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

2.93

creates per match

1.38

0.73

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Liverpool U19

2.93

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.38

allows per match

Liverpool U19

0.73

Crvena Zvezda U19

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool U19+0.00on par

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool U19 ↓

Crvena Zvezda U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Liverpool U19 or draw

89%

Liverpool U19 or Crvena Zvezda U19

85%

Draw or Crvena Zvezda U19

26%

Winning margin

Liverpool U19 wins by 2+

53%

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Liverpool U19 1+ goals

94%

Liverpool U19 2+ goals

77%

Liverpool U19 3+ goals

53%

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

65%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

28%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Liverpool U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool U19 at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Crvena Zvezda U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool U19 attack 2.93 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.85

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.38 + Liverpool U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Liverpool U19 scores more

74%

level

15%

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

11%

Liverpool U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Liverpool U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

E. Ajdinović← N. Savić

46'

I. Stojančić← M. Stojanović

46'

N. Kupusović← L. Velikić

76'

D. Joveljić

80'

B. Duncan← J. Cain

80'

B. Burmaz← B. Jocic

86'

L. Longstaff← B. Adekanye

86'

K. Hoever← N. Williams

86'

Rafael Camacho

90+3'

E. Dixon-Bonner← P. Glatzel

90+3'

D. Milisavljević← N. Adžibaba

90+2'

R. Williams↳ A. Lewis

Liverpool

Crvena

51

3

4

6

5

▼

Savić

10

▼

Jocic

2

Kukolj

7

▼

Adžibaba

8

▼

Stojanovi

9

⚽

Joveljić

11

▼

Velikić

1

Jaros

5

Clayton

4

⚽

Williams

3

A

Lewis

11

⚽

Camacho

8

Jones

2

▼

Williams

10

▼

Cain

6

Clarkson

7

▼

Adekanye

9

▼

Glatzel

Manager: B. Lewtas

80'▲B. Duncan←▼J. Cain

86'▲L. Longstaff←▼B. Adekanye

86'▲K. Hoever←▼N. Williams

90+3'▲E. Dixon-Bonner←▼P. Glatzel

Liverpool U19 substitutes

14Duncan18Longstaff15Hoever12Dixon-Bonner16Boyes13Kelly17Larouci

Manager: B. Živković

36'▲E. Ajdinović←▼N. Savić

46'▲I. Stojančić←▼M. Stojanović

46'▲N. Kupusović←▼L. Velikić

80'▲B. Burmaz←▼B. Jocic

90+3'▲D. Milisavljević←▼N. Adžibaba

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

15Ajdinović14Stojančić18Kupusović17Burmaz13Milisavljević16Dedijer12Krstović

UEFA Youth League: Liverpool U19 2–1 Crvena Zvezda U19

Liverpool U19 beat Crvena Zvezda U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 24, 2018.

Goals: D. Joveljić (76'), Rafael Camacho (86'), R. Williams (90+2').

The match was played at Langtree Park (St Helens, Merseyside).

Liverpool U19 vs Crvena Zvezda U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Liverpool U19 2–1 Crvena Zvezda U19