Crvena Zvezda U19 0–2 Liverpool U19: Result & Stats

Crvena Zvezda U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool U19

A. Lewis 75'

C. Jones 69'

11/6/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Stadion na Banovom brdu (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Crvena Zvezda U1941%

×Draw25%

Liverpool U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda U19Expected goals in this matchLiverpool U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.30

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.48

Liverpool U19

1.30

Crvena Zvezda U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.07

creates per match

1.53

1.07

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

Liverpool U19

1.53

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

Liverpool U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Liverpool U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda U19 ↓

Liverpool U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda U19 or draw

67%

Crvena Zvezda U19 or Liverpool U19

75%

Draw or Liverpool U19

59%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

20%

Liverpool U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

77%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

43%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

19%

Liverpool U19 1+ goals

73%

Liverpool U19 2+ goals

37%

Liverpool U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Liverpool U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Liverpool U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.07 + Liverpool U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Liverpool U19 attack 1.53 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

41%

level

25%

Liverpool U19 scores more

33%

Crvena Zvezda U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

L. Velikić← N. Kupusović

62'

I. Stojančić← M. Stojanović

69'

C. Jones

75'

A. Lewis

80'

P. Glatzel← B. Duncan

80'

E. Dixon-Bonner← J. Cain

82'

B. Burmaz← B. Jocic

84'

K. Hoever← B. Adekanye

85'

Y. Larouci← Rafael Camacho

90'

M. Dedijer← A. Terzić

90'

E. Ajdinović← N. Adžibaba

Crvena

Liverpool

1

Jaros

5

Clayton

4

Williams

3

⚽

Lewis

6

Coyle

11

▼

Camacho

8

⚽

Jones

2

Williams

10

▼

Cain

7

▼

Adekanye

14

▼

Duncan

51

Gordić

11

▼

5

3

6

10

▼

Jocic

2

Kukolj

4

▼

Adžibaba

8

▼

Stojanovi

9

Joveljić

7

▼

Kupusović

Manager: B. Živković

62'▲L. Velikić←▼N. Kupusović

62'▲I. Stojančić←▼M. Stojanović

82'▲B. Burmaz←▼B. Jocic

90'▲M. Dedijer←▼A. Terzić

90'▲E. Ajdinović←▼N. Adžibaba

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

17Velikić14Stojančić18Burmaz16Dedijer15Ajdinović13Ivanović12Krstović

Manager: B. Lewtas

80'▲P. Glatzel←▼B. Duncan

80'▲E. Dixon-Bonner←▼J. Cain

84'▲K. Hoever←▼B. Adekanye

85'▲Y. Larouci←▼Rafael Camacho

Liverpool U19 substitutes

9Glatzel12Dixon-Bonner15Hoever17Larouci18Longstaff16Clarkson13Kelly