Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Liverpool Montevideo vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Liverpool Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
S. Strasorier 64'
H. Palacios 90'
F. Fydriszewski 52'
2/18/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 2Estadio Belvedere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liverpool Montevideo33%
×Draw25%
Independiente Medellin42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool Montevideo
1.33
Independiente Medellin
1.54

Independiente Medellin creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Liverpool Montevideo
1.00
Independiente Medellin
1.33

allows per match

Liverpool Montevideo
1.75
Independiente Medellin
1.67

finishing

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Montevideo ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Liverpool Montevideo or draw
58%
Liverpool Montevideo or Independiente Medellin
75%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
67%

Winning margin

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+
14%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals
74%
Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals
38%
Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals
15%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
79%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
45%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)
44%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Montevideo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Montevideo attack 1.00 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Liverpool Montevideo scores more
33%
level
25%
Independiente Medellin scores more
42%

Independiente Medellin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
S. StrasorierLiverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo · D
7.6

Match Events

41'
A. Restrepo
45+1'
J. Ortiz
46'
D. Romero← K. Lewis
49'
E. Castillo
52'
F. Fydriszewski↳ J. Ortiz
55'
R. Bentancourt← F. Barcelo
55'
R. M. Degregorio← F. Martinez
60'
H. Palacios← E. Mena Perea
60'
E. Larrosa← J. Montano
64'
S. Strasorier↳ D. Romero
70'
E. Olivera← N. Garayalde
73'
F. Fabra← F. Chaverra
78'
Goal Disallowed - video review
82'
S. Laquidain
82'
E. Larrosa
86'
D. Zabala← R. Machado
90'
H. Palacios↳ F. Fabra

Possession

54%Liverpool

Shots

11Liverpool

Pass accuracy

50%Liverpool

Statistics

LiverpoolIndependiente
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots20
1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.66
4Corners5
11Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots20
3On Target5
3Off Target9
5Blocked6
7Inside Box11
4Outside Box9
Passing
54%Possession46%
364Total Passes312
284Accurate Passes247
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
-0.16Goals Prevented-0.16
Discipline
11Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Liverpool Montevideo vs Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Liverpool Montevideo 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 18, 2026.

Goals: F. Fydriszewski (52'), S. Strasorier (64'), H. Palacios (90').

Liverpool Montevideo controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Belvedere in Montevideo.