Independiente Medellin 0–0 Liverpool Montevideo

Independiente Medellin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool Montevideo

2/25/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Qualification Round 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Independiente Medellin67%

×Draw21%

Liverpool Montevideo13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchLiverpool Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.70

Independiente Medellin

1.94

Liverpool Montevideo

0.70

Independiente Medellin creates 177% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.62

creates per match

0.63

0.77

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.62

Liverpool Montevideo

0.63

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.77

Liverpool Montevideo

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Liverpool Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

87%

Independiente Medellin or Liverpool Montevideo

79%

Draw or Liverpool Montevideo

33%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

41%

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

86%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

58%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

30%

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

50%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

16%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

84%

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Liverpool Montevideo away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.94

Liverpool Montevideo attack 0.63 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

67%

level

21%

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

13%

Independiente Medellin at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Ichazo

Independiente Medellin

8.5

Match Events

19'

27'

41'

42'

43'

48'

48'

64'

R. M. Degregorio← S. Laquidain

64'

R. Machado← F. Barcelo

66'

H. Palacios← E. Mena Perea

66'

E. Larrosa← J. Montano

78'

K. Lewis← F. Martinez

80'

F. Chaverra← H. Loboa

85'

L. Acosta← F. Perdomo

85'

D. Zabala← N. Garayalde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteLiverpool

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots12

0.64Expected Goals (xG)0.75

3Corners4

15Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target4

5Off Target5

3Blocked3

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

263Total Passes367

183Accurate Passes271

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.70Goals Prevented0.70

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente Medellin 0–0 Liverpool Montevideo

Independiente Medellin and Liverpool Montevideo drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 25, 2026.

Liverpool Montevideo controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Independiente Medellin vs Liverpool Montevideo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente Medellin 0–0 Liverpool Montevideo