Little Rock Rangers 1–0 Baton Rouge LA

Little Rock Rangers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Baton Rouge LA

6/15/2023

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 9War Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Little Rock Rangers75%

×Draw14%

Baton Rouge LA11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Little Rock RangersExpected goals in this matchBaton Rouge LA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.07

Little Rock Rangers

2.96

Baton Rouge LA

1.07

Little Rock Rangers creates 177% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 13 away

2.31

creates per match

1.46

0.69

allows per match

3.62

creates per match

Little Rock Rangers

2.31

Baton Rouge LA

1.46

allows per match

Little Rock Rangers

0.69

Baton Rouge LA

3.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Little Rock Rangers+0.00on par

Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Little Rock Rangers ↓

Baton Rouge LA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Little Rock Rangers or draw

89%

Little Rock Rangers or Baton Rouge LA

86%

Draw or Baton Rouge LA

25%

Winning margin

Little Rock Rangers wins by 2+

55%

Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Little Rock Rangers 1+ goals

95%

Little Rock Rangers 2+ goals

79%

Little Rock Rangers 3+ goals

55%

Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals

66%

Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals

29%

Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Little Rock Rangers (draw refunded)

87%

Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Little Rock Rangers at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

Baton Rouge LA away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Little Rock Rangers attack 2.31 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.96

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.46 + Little Rock Rangers defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Little Rock Rangers scores more

75%

level

14%

Baton Rouge LA scores more

11%

Little Rock Rangers at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Little Rock Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff