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Baton Rouge LA vs Little Rock Rangers — USL League Two 2018

Baton Rouge LA
Baton Rouge LA
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Little Rock Rangers
Little Rock Rangers
6/29/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 13LSU Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baton Rouge LA11%
×Draw15%
Little Rock Rangers74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baton Rouge LA
0.98
Little Rock Rangers
2.77

Little Rock Rangers creates 183% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

creates per match

Baton Rouge LA
1.00
Little Rock Rangers
1.69

allows per match

Baton Rouge LA
3.85
Little Rock Rangers
0.97

finishing

Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par
Little Rock Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baton Rouge LA ↓

Little Rock Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Baton Rouge LA or draw
26%
Baton Rouge LA or Little Rock Rangers
85%
Draw or Little Rock Rangers
89%

Winning margin

Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+
4%
Little Rock Rangers wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals
62%
Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals
26%
Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals
8%
Little Rock Rangers 1+ goals
94%
Little Rock Rangers 2+ goals
76%
Little Rock Rangers 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)
13%
Little Rock Rangers (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baton Rouge LA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

Little Rock Rangers away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.00 + Little Rock Rangers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Little Rock Rangers attack 1.69 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Baton Rouge LA scores more
11%
level
15%
Little Rock Rangers scores more
74%

Little Rock Rangers at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Little Rock Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baton Rouge LA vs Little Rock Rangers

Little Rock Rangers beat Baton Rouge LA 5-0 in USL League Two on June 29, 2023.

The match was played at LSU Soccer Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.