Lithuania 1–2 Kosovo: Result & Stats

Lithuania

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kosovo

P. Golubickas 84'

E. Krasniqi 65'

E. Zhegrova 20'

10/12/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 3S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lithuania17%

×Draw23%

Kosovo60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchKosovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.75

Lithuania

0.80

Kosovo

1.75

Kosovo creates 119% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

0.67

creates per match

1.58

1.92

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Lithuania

0.67

Kosovo

1.58

allows per match

Lithuania

1.92

Kosovo

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Kosovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Kosovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

40%

Lithuania or Kosovo

77%

Draw or Kosovo

83%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

5%

Kosovo wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

55%

Lithuania 2+ goals

19%

Lithuania 3+ goals

5%

Kosovo 1+ goals

83%

Kosovo 2+ goals

52%

Kosovo 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

22%

Kosovo (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Kosovo away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 0.67 + Kosovo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Kosovo attack 1.58 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lithuania scores more

17%

level

23%

Kosovo scores more

60%

Kosovo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Zhegrova

Kosovo · M

8.0

Match Events

14'

Edvinas Girdvainis

20'

E. Zhegrova↳ F. Muslija

45+2'

Donat Rrudhani

51'

Lumbardh Dellova

53'

Artemijus Tutyškinas

59'

P. Golubickas← M. Vorobjovas

59'

F. Černych← J. Lasickas

59'

E. Krasniqi← F. Muslija

59'

F. Hadergjonaj← D. Rrudhani

65'

E. Krasniqi↳ M. Rashica

75'

I. Krasniqi← V. Berisha

77'

G. Paulauskas← A. Dolžnikov

78'

G. Matulevičius← A. Kučys

84'

P. Golubickas↳ G. Paulauskas

85'

Elvis Rexhbeçaj

88'

M. Jashari← M. Rashica

88'

F. Asllani← Albion Rrahmani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LithuaniaKosovo

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots9

3Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots9

2On Target4

3Off Target4

4Blocked1

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

470Total Passes425

369Accurate Passes328

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1