Kosovo 1–0 Lithuania: Result & Stats

Kosovo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lithuania

M. Jashari 5'

11/18/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kosovo65%

×Draw21%

Lithuania14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KosovoExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.72

Kosovo

1.89

Lithuania

0.72

Kosovo creates 163% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

0.62

0.83

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Kosovo

2.00

Lithuania

0.62

allows per match

Kosovo

0.83

Lithuania

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw

86%

Kosovo or Lithuania

79%

Draw or Lithuania

35%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+

39%

Lithuania wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals

85%

Kosovo 2+ goals

56%

Kosovo 3+ goals

29%

Lithuania 1+ goals

51%

Lithuania 2+ goals

16%

Lithuania 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)

83%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 2.00 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.89

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Kosovo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kosovo scores more

65%

level

21%

Lithuania scores more

14%

Kosovo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Murić

Kosovo · G

8.2

Match Events

5'

M. Jashari↳ V. Muriqi

24'

Pijus Širvys

37'

Elvis Rexhbeçaj

45+1'

Muharrem Jashari

45'

Muharrem JashariCard upgrade

46'

Z. Bytyqi← Albion Rrahmani

46'

L. Emërllahu← V. Berisha

60'

P. Golubickas← F. Černych

79'

A. Hoti← E. Zhegrova

80'

F. Asllani← V. Muriqi

80'

R. Jansonas← M. Vorobjovas

89'

Arijanet Murić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KosovoLithuania

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots12

4Corners2

17Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target4

5Off Target8

2Blocked0

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

362Total Passes486

282Accurate Passes409

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0