Lithuania 1–0 Gibraltar: Result & Stats

Lithuania

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gibraltar

3/26/2024

UEFA Nations League · Relegation Play-outSteponas Darius and Stasys Girenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lithuania38%

×Draw28%

Gibraltar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchGibraltar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.13

Lithuania

1.23

Gibraltar

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

0.62

creates per match

0.33

1.92

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Lithuania

0.62

Gibraltar

0.33

allows per match

Lithuania

1.92

Gibraltar

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Gibraltar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Gibraltar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

66%

Lithuania or Gibraltar

72%

Draw or Gibraltar

62%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

17%

Gibraltar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

71%

Lithuania 2+ goals

35%

Lithuania 3+ goals

13%

Gibraltar 1+ goals

68%

Gibraltar 2+ goals

31%

Gibraltar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

53%

Gibraltar (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Gibraltar away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Gibraltar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gibraltar attack 0.33 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lithuania scores more

38%

level

28%

Gibraltar scores more

34%

Lithuania at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lithuania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff