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Gibraltar vs Lithuania — UEFA Nations League 2018

Gibraltar
Gibraltar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lithuania
Lithuania
3/21/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · Relegation Play-outVictoria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Gibraltar42%
×Draw27%
Lithuania31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gibraltar
1.34
Lithuania
1.10

Gibraltar creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gibraltar
0.92
Lithuania
0.62

allows per match

Gibraltar
1.58
Lithuania
1.77

finishing

Gibraltar+0.00on par
Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar ↓

Lithuania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gibraltar or draw
69%
Gibraltar or Lithuania
73%
Draw or Lithuania
58%

Winning margin

Gibraltar wins by 2+
19%
Lithuania wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gibraltar 1+ goals
74%
Gibraltar 2+ goals
39%
Gibraltar 3+ goals
15%
Lithuania 1+ goals
67%
Lithuania 2+ goals
30%
Lithuania 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar (draw refunded)
58%
Lithuania (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar attack 0.92 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Gibraltar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gibraltar scores more
42%
level
27%
Lithuania scores more
31%

Gibraltar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gibraltar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Nations League: Gibraltar 0–1 Lithuania

Lithuania beat Gibraltar 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Victoria Stadium in Gibraltar.