Lithuania 2–2 Finland: Result & Stats | League #32

Lithuania

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Finland

G. Gineitis 69'

A. Kucys 39'

J. Pohjanpalo 17' (pen)

K. Kairinen 4'

3/24/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 2S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lithuania36%

×Draw24%

Finland41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchFinland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.64

Lithuania

1.53

Finland

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.67

1.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Lithuania

1.40

Finland

1.67

allows per match

Lithuania

1.60

Finland

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Finland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Finland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

59%

Lithuania or Finland

76%

Draw or Finland

64%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

17%

Finland wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

78%

Lithuania 2+ goals

45%

Lithuania 3+ goals

20%

Finland 1+ goals

81%

Finland 2+ goals

49%

Finland 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

47%

Finland (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Finland away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 1.40 + Finland defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Finland attack 1.67 + Lithuania defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lithuania scores more

36%

level

24%

Finland scores more

41%

Finland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Finland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

G. Gineitis

Lithuania · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

K. Kairinen

15'

Edvinas Girdvainis

17'

J. PohjanpaloPenalty

39'

A. Kucys↳ A. Dolznikov

42'

Miro Tenho

45'

Robert Ivanov

46'

P. Golubickas← A. Dolznikov

46'

L. Vaisanen← M. Tenho

58'

M. Ruzgis← A. Kucys

61'

B. Kallman← J. Pohjanpalo

61'

A. Suhonen← R. Lod

65'

F. Cernych← G. Matulevicius

69'

G. Gineitis↳ P. Golubickas

70'

Gvidas Gineitis

73'

Titas Milašius

76'

M. Remeikis← E. Utkus

77'

M. Peltola← G. Kamara

85'

T. Pukki← O. Antman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LithuaniaFinland

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots13

2Corners5

17Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots13

6On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked6

5Inside Box10

6Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

411Total Passes514

344Accurate Passes445

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2