Finland 2–1 Lithuania: Result & Stats | League #32

Finland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lithuania

A. Markhiev 55'

B. Kallman 48'

P. Sirvys 25'

10/9/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 7Helsinki Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Finland48%

×Draw25%

Lithuania27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FinlandExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.08

Finland

1.54

Lithuania

1.08

Finland creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.50

1.67

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Finland

1.33

Lithuania

0.50

allows per match

Finland

1.67

Lithuania

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Finland or draw

73%

Finland or Lithuania

75%

Draw or Lithuania

52%

Winning margin

Finland wins by 2+

24%

Lithuania wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Finland 1+ goals

79%

Finland 2+ goals

45%

Finland 3+ goals

20%

Lithuania 1+ goals

66%

Lithuania 2+ goals

29%

Lithuania 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Finland (draw refunded)

64%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland attack 1.33 + Lithuania defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lithuania attack 0.50 + Finland defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Finland scores more

48%

level

25%

Lithuania scores more

27%

Finland at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Finland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Markhiev

Finland · M

7.6

Match Events

14'

Artur Dolznikov

25'

P. Sirvys

48'

B. Kallman

49'

Benjamin KällmanGoal confirmed

55'

A. Markhiev↳ O. Antman

60'

V. Slivka← P. Golubickas

60'

E. Jankauskas← A. Dolznikov

61'

R. Lod← A. Markhiev

65'

C. Terho← B. Kallman

72'

Robert Ivanov

77'

G. Sirgedas← V. Armalas

77'

N. Petkevicius← G. Paulauskas

83'

M. Peltola← L. Walta

83'

A. Stahl← J. Lahteenmaki

83'

T. Keskinen← O. Antman

90+4'

Topi Keskinen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FinlandLithuania

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots8

1.24Expected Goals (xG)0.72

5Corners1

21Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots8

7On Target3

4Off Target4

0Blocked1

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

426Total Passes431

365Accurate Passes363

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1