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Lithuania U17 vs Finland U17 — Friendlies 2018

Lithuania U17
Lithuania U17
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Finland U17
Finland U17
6/30/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lithuania U1749%
×Draw18%
Finland U1733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lithuania U17
3.04
Finland U17
2.50

Lithuania U17 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lithuania U17
2.33
Finland U17
1.00

allows per match

Lithuania U17
4.00
Finland U17
3.75

finishing

Lithuania U17+0.00on par
Finland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania U17 ↓

Finland U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Lithuania U17 or draw
67%
Lithuania U17 or Finland U17
82%
Draw or Finland U17
51%

Winning margin

Lithuania U17 wins by 2+
32%
Finland U17 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lithuania U17 1+ goals
95%
Lithuania U17 2+ goals
80%
Lithuania U17 3+ goals
57%
Finland U17 1+ goals
92%
Finland U17 2+ goals
71%
Finland U17 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Lithuania U17 (draw refunded)
60%
Finland U17 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Finland U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania U17 attack 2.33 + Finland U17 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.04

Finland U17 attack 1.00 + Lithuania U17 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lithuania U17 scores more
49%
level
18%
Finland U17 scores more
33%

Lithuania U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lithuania U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Lithuania U17 1–3 Finland U17

Finland U17 beat Lithuania U17 3-1 in Friendlies on June 30, 2023.