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Finland U17 vs Lithuania U17 — Friendlies 2018

Finland U17
Finland U17
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lithuania U17
Lithuania U17
M. Mahmood 90'
L. Jarvinen 53'
M. Yinkfu Chuye 12'
J. Petravicius 30'
6/27/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1EJL TNTK jalgpallivaljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Finland U1743%
×Draw21%
Lithuania U1737%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Finland U17
2.08
Lithuania U17
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Finland U17
2.33
Lithuania U17
1.83

allows per match

Finland U17
2.00
Lithuania U17
1.83

finishing

Finland U17+0.00on par
Lithuania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland U17 ↓

Lithuania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Finland U17 or draw
63%
Finland U17 or Lithuania U17
79%
Draw or Lithuania U17
57%

Winning margin

Finland U17 wins by 2+
24%
Lithuania U17 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Finland U17 1+ goals
87%
Finland U17 2+ goals
61%
Finland U17 3+ goals
34%
Lithuania U17 1+ goals
85%
Lithuania U17 2+ goals
57%
Lithuania U17 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Finland U17 (draw refunded)
54%
Lithuania U17 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Lithuania U17 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland U17 attack 2.33 + Lithuania U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lithuania U17 attack 1.83 + Finland U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Finland U17 scores more
43%
level
21%
Lithuania U17 scores more
37%

Finland U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Finland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
M. Yinkfu Chuye
30'
J. Petravicius
53'
L. Jarvinen
90'
M. Mahmood
Finland
Lithuania
E. Lehtola
Manager: E. Lehtola
A. Velička
Manager: A. Velička

Friendlies: Finland U17 3–1 Lithuania U17

Finland U17 beat Lithuania U17 3-1 in Friendlies on June 27, 2025.

Goals: M. Yinkfu Chuye (12'), J. Petravicius (30'), L. Jarvinen (53'), M. Mahmood (90').

The match was played at EJL TNTK jalgpallivaljak in Tallinn.