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Lithuania U17 vs Estonia U17 — Friendlies 2018

Lithuania U17
Lithuania U17
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Estonia U17
Estonia U17
6/28/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lithuania U1738%
×Draw19%
Estonia U1743%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lithuania U17
2.29
Estonia U17
2.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lithuania U17
2.33
Estonia U17
0.88

allows per match

Lithuania U17
4.00
Estonia U17
2.25

finishing

Lithuania U17+0.00on par
Estonia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania U17 ↓

Estonia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Lithuania U17 or draw
57%
Lithuania U17 or Estonia U17
81%
Draw or Estonia U17
62%

Winning margin

Lithuania U17 wins by 2+
21%
Estonia U17 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lithuania U17 1+ goals
90%
Lithuania U17 2+ goals
66%
Lithuania U17 3+ goals
40%
Estonia U17 1+ goals
91%
Estonia U17 2+ goals
70%
Estonia U17 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Lithuania U17 (draw refunded)
47%
Estonia U17 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Estonia U17 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania U17 attack 2.33 + Estonia U17 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Estonia U17 attack 0.88 + Lithuania U17 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lithuania U17 scores more
38%
level
19%
Estonia U17 scores more
43%

Estonia U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estonia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Lithuania U17 2–4 Estonia U17

Estonia U17 beat Lithuania U17 4-2 in Friendlies on June 28, 2023.