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Estonia U17 vs Lithuania U17 — Friendlies 2018

Estonia U17
Estonia U17
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Lithuania U17
Lithuania U17
K. Haabma 28'
J. Sluta 61'
M. Mironcikas 54'
L. Korvel 51', 42'
7/2/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalJari Litmanen Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Estonia U1722%
×Draw19%
Lithuania U1759%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estonia U17
1.42
Lithuania U17
2.42

Lithuania U17 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Estonia U17
1.00
Lithuania U17
1.83

allows per match

Estonia U17
3.00
Lithuania U17
1.83

finishing

Estonia U17+0.00on par
Lithuania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia U17 ↓

Lithuania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Estonia U17 or draw
41%
Estonia U17 or Lithuania U17
81%
Draw or Lithuania U17
78%

Winning margin

Estonia U17 wins by 2+
9%
Lithuania U17 wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Estonia U17 1+ goals
76%
Estonia U17 2+ goals
41%
Estonia U17 3+ goals
17%
Lithuania U17 1+ goals
91%
Lithuania U17 2+ goals
69%
Lithuania U17 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Estonia U17 (draw refunded)
27%
Lithuania U17 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Lithuania U17 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia U17 attack 1.00 + Lithuania U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lithuania U17 attack 1.83 + Estonia U17 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Estonia U17 scores more
22%
level
19%
Lithuania U17 scores more
59%

Lithuania U17 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lithuania U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
K. Haabma
42'
L. Korvel
51'
L. Korvel
54'
M. Mironcikas
61'
J. Sluta
Estonia
Lithuania
A. Oper
Manager: A. Oper
A. Velička
Manager: A. Velička

Friendlies: Estonia U17 1–4 Lithuania U17

Lithuania U17 beat Estonia U17 4-1 in Friendlies on July 2, 2026.

Goals: K. Haabma (28'), L. Korvel (42', 51'), M. Mironcikas (54'), J. Sluta (61').

The match was played at Jari Litmanen Areena.