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Litex vs Levski Lom — Second League 2018

Litex
Litex
CANC
14:00
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
4/10/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 31Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Litex65%
×Draw23%
Levski Lom12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Litex
1.68
Levski Lom
0.55

Litex creates 205% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 13 away

creates per match

Litex
1.21
Levski Lom
0.31

allows per match

Litex
0.78
Levski Lom
2.15

finishing

Litex+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Litex or draw
88%
Litex or Levski Lom
77%
Draw or Levski Lom
35%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+
37%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals
81%
Litex 2+ goals
50%
Litex 3+ goals
24%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
42%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
11%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)
85%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.21 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.68

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Litex scores more
65%
level
23%
Levski Lom scores more
12%

Litex at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Litex host Levski Lom

April 10, 2022: Litex take on Levski Lom in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Litex host Levski Lom at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.