Levski Lom 2–3 Litex: Result & Stats

Levski Lom

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Litex

10/2/2021

Second League · Round 12Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom34%

×Draw31%

Litex35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski LomExpected goals in this matchLitex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.03

Levski Lom

1.00

Litex

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 110 away

0.77

creates per match

0.84

1.23

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Levski Lom

0.77

Litex

0.84

allows per match

Levski Lom

1.23

Litex

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Litex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw

65%

Levski Lom or Litex

69%

Draw or Litex

66%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+

13%

Litex wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals

63%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

26%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

8%

Litex 1+ goals

64%

Litex 2+ goals

28%

Litex 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

49%

Litex (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Litex away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.24 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + Litex defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Litex attack 0.84 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Levski Lom scores more

34%

level

31%

Litex scores more

35%

Litex at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff