Litex 1–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo: Result & Stats

Litex

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

11/11/2022

Second League · Round 17Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Litex41%

×Draw29%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LitexExpected goals in this matchEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.99

Litex

1.21

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.99

Litex creates 22% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 70 away

1.21

creates per match

1.20

0.78

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Litex

1.21

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.20

allows per match

Litex

0.78

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Litex+0.00on par

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Litex or draw

70%

Litex or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

71%

Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

59%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+

18%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals

70%

Litex 2+ goals

34%

Litex 3+ goals

12%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

63%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

26%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)

58%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.21 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.20 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Litex scores more

41%

level

29%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

30%

Litex at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff