Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–1 Litex: Result & Stats

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Litex

6/4/2023

Second League · Round 34Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo52%

×Draw26%

Litex22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar Veliko TarnovoExpected goals in this matchLitex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.86

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.50

Litex

0.86

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 110 away

1.77

creates per match

0.84

0.89

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.77

Litex

0.84

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.89

Litex

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Litex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw

78%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Litex

74%

Draw or Litex

48%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

27%

Litex wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

78%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

44%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

19%

Litex 1+ goals

58%

Litex 2+ goals

21%

Litex 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

71%

Litex (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 71 matches

Litex away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.24 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.77 + Litex defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Litex attack 0.84 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

52%

level

26%

Litex scores more

22%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff