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Litex vs Dunav Ruse — Second League 2018

Litex
Litex
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
11/12/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Litex40%
×Draw29%
Dunav Ruse31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Litex
1.17
Dunav Ruse
0.98

Litex creates 19% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 69 away

creates per match

Litex
1.21
Dunav Ruse
1.19

allows per match

Litex
0.78
Dunav Ruse
1.14

finishing

Litex+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Litex or draw
69%
Litex or Dunav Ruse
71%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
60%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+
17%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals
69%
Litex 2+ goals
33%
Litex 3+ goals
11%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
62%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
26%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)
57%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.21 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Litex scores more
40%
level
29%
Dunav Ruse scores more
31%

Litex at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Litex vs Dunav Ruse

Litex beat Dunav Ruse 1-0 in Second League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Lovech.