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Dunav Ruse vs Litex — Second League 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Litex
Litex
2/11/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dunav Ruse50%
×Draw28%
Litex21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.34
Litex
0.76

Dunav Ruse creates 76% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 110 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.45
Litex
0.84

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.67
Litex
1.24

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Litex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
79%
Dunav Ruse or Litex
72%
Draw or Litex
50%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
24%
Litex wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
74%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
39%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
15%
Litex 1+ goals
53%
Litex 2+ goals
18%
Litex 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
70%
Litex (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

Litex away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.24 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + Litex defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Litex attack 0.84 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
50%
level
28%
Litex scores more
21%

Dunav Ruse at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dunav Ruse 1–1 Litex

Dunav Ruse and Litex drew 1-1 in Second League on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.