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Líšeň II vs Dálnice Speřice — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Líšeň II
Líšeň II
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
8/10/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 2Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Líšeň II72%
×Draw17%
Dálnice Speřice11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Líšeň II
2.48
Dálnice Speřice
0.88

Líšeň II creates 182% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

creates per match

Líšeň II
2.38
Dálnice Speřice
0.62

allows per match

Líšeň II
1.13
Dálnice Speřice
2.59

finishing

Líšeň II+0.00on par
Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Líšeň II ↓

Dálnice Speřice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Líšeň II or draw
89%
Líšeň II or Dálnice Speřice
83%
Draw or Dálnice Speřice
28%

Winning margin

Líšeň II wins by 2+
50%
Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Líšeň II 1+ goals
92%
Líšeň II 2+ goals
70%
Líšeň II 3+ goals
44%
Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
59%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
22%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Líšeň II (draw refunded)
86%
Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Líšeň II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Dálnice Speřice away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.59 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Líšeň II attack 2.38 + Dálnice Speřice defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.48

Dálnice Speřice attack 0.62 + Líšeň II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Líšeň II scores more
72%
level
17%
Dálnice Speřice scores more
11%

Líšeň II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Líšeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Líšeň II vs Dálnice Speřice

Líšeň II beat Dálnice Speřice 6-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.