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Dálnice Speřice vs Líšeň II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Líšeň II
Líšeň II
3/15/20264. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dálnice Speřice28%
×Draw23%
Líšeň II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dálnice Speřice
1.32
Líšeň II
1.79

Líšeň II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.41
Líšeň II
2.02

allows per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.57
Líšeň II
1.24

finishing

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par
Líšeň II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dálnice Speřice ↓

Líšeň II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dálnice Speřice or draw
52%
Dálnice Speřice or Líšeň II
77%
Draw or Líšeň II
72%

Winning margin

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
12%
Líšeň II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
73%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
38%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
15%
Líšeň II 1+ goals
83%
Líšeň II 2+ goals
53%
Líšeň II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
37%
Líšeň II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dálnice Speřice at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

Líšeň II away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dálnice Speřice attack 1.41 + Líšeň II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Líšeň II attack 2.02 + Dálnice Speřice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dálnice Speřice scores more
28%
level
23%
Líšeň II scores more
48%

Líšeň II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Líšeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Dálnice Speřice 1–3 Líšeň II

Líšeň II beat Dálnice Speřice 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 15, 2026.