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LISCR vs Cece United — LFA First Division 2020

LISCR
LISCR
FT
3 – 1
Cece United
Cece United
9/4/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 1Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

LISCR50%
×Draw22%
Cece United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LISCR
1.91
Cece United
1.35

LISCR creates 41% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 26 away

creates per match

LISCR
1.86
Cece United
1.58

allows per match

LISCR
1.13
Cece United
1.96

finishing

LISCR+0.00on par
Cece United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LISCR ↓

Cece United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

LISCR or draw
73%
LISCR or Cece United
78%
Draw or Cece United
50%

Winning margin

LISCR wins by 2+
29%
Cece United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LISCR 1+ goals
85%
LISCR 2+ goals
57%
LISCR 3+ goals
30%
Cece United 1+ goals
74%
Cece United 2+ goals
39%
Cece United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

LISCR (draw refunded)
65%
Cece United (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LISCR at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Cece United away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LISCR attack 1.86 + Cece United defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Cece United attack 1.58 + LISCR defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

LISCR scores more
50%
level
22%
Cece United scores more
27%

LISCR at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: LISCR 3–1 Cece United

LISCR beat Cece United 3-1 in LFA First Division on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.