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Cece United vs LISCR — LFA First Division 2020

Cece United
Cece United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
LISCR
LISCR
10/29/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cece United30%
×Draw26%
LISCR43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cece United
1.15
LISCR
1.43

LISCR creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 73 away

creates per match

Cece United
1.12
LISCR
1.62

allows per match

Cece United
1.23
LISCR
1.18

finishing

Cece United+0.00on par
LISCR+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cece United ↓

LISCR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cece United or draw
57%
Cece United or LISCR
74%
Draw or LISCR
70%

Winning margin

Cece United wins by 2+
12%
LISCR wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cece United 1+ goals
68%
Cece United 2+ goals
32%
Cece United 3+ goals
11%
LISCR 1+ goals
76%
LISCR 2+ goals
42%
LISCR 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cece United (draw refunded)
41%
LISCR (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cece United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

LISCR away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cece United attack 1.12 + LISCR defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

LISCR attack 1.62 + Cece United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cece United scores more
30%
level
26%
LISCR scores more
43%

LISCR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cece United vs LISCR

LISCR beat Cece United 3-1 in LFA First Division on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.