Lisburn Rangers W 1–0 Lisburn Ladies W

Lisburn Rangers W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lisburn Ladies W

M. Loughran 66'

8/8/2025

Premiership Women · Round 10Crewe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lisburn Rangers W82%

×Draw11%

Lisburn Ladies W7%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lisburn Rangers WExpected goals in this matchLisburn Ladies W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.21

0.85

Lisburn Rangers W

3.21

Lisburn Ladies W

0.85

Lisburn Rangers W creates 278% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

2.75

creates per match

0.95

0.75

allows per match

3.68

creates per match

Lisburn Rangers W

2.75

Lisburn Ladies W

0.95

allows per match

Lisburn Rangers W

0.75

Lisburn Ladies W

3.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Rangers W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Lisburn Rangers W or draw

93%

Lisburn Rangers W or Lisburn Ladies W

89%

Draw or Lisburn Ladies W

18%

Winning margin

Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+

64%

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals

96%

Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals

82%

Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals

60%

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals

57%

Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals

21%

Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)

92%

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Rangers W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.75 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.68 → ÷2 → 3.21

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.95 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Lisburn Rangers W scores more

82%

level

11%

Lisburn Ladies W scores more

7%

Lisburn Rangers W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Lisburn Rangers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

M. Loughran

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff