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Lisburn Ladies W vs Lisburn Rangers W — Premiership Women 2026

Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Lisburn Rangers W
Lisburn Rangers W
K. O'Hare 20'
A. Stanyte 78'
S. Megaw 44'
C. Gelston Mulholland 18'
6/20/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 6The Bluebell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lisburn Ladies W6%
×Draw16%
Lisburn Rangers W78%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Ladies W
0.47
Lisburn Rangers W
2.26

Lisburn Rangers W creates 381% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lisburn Ladies W
0.53
Lisburn Rangers W
2.00

allows per match

Lisburn Ladies W
2.53
Lisburn Rangers W
0.40

finishing

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par
Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Ladies W ↓

Lisburn Rangers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–115%
0–217%
0–313%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (17%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lisburn Ladies W or draw
22%
Lisburn Ladies W or Lisburn Rangers W
84%
Draw or Lisburn Rangers W
94%

Winning margin

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
1%
Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
37%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
8%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
1%
Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals
89%
Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals
66%
Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
7%
Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Ladies W at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Lisburn Rangers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.53 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.47

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.00 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Lisburn Ladies W scores more
6%
level
16%
Lisburn Rangers W scores more
78%

Lisburn Rangers W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Lisburn Rangers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
C. Gelston Mulholland
20'
K. O'Hare
44'
S. Megaw
78'
A. Stanyte

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Lisburn Ladies W 1–3 Lisburn Rangers W

Lisburn Rangers W beat Lisburn Ladies W 3-1 in Premiership Women on June 20, 2025.

Goals: C. Gelston Mulholland (18'), K. O'Hare (20'), S. Megaw (44'), A. Stanyte (78').

The match was played at The Bluebell Stadium in Lisburn.