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Lisburn Rangers W vs Derry City W — Premiership Women 2026

Lisburn Rangers W
Lisburn Rangers W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Derry City W
Derry City W
T. Bell 39'
G. Conway 8'
7/4/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 7Crewe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lisburn Rangers W74%
×Draw14%
Derry City W11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Rangers W
2.92
Derry City W
1.07

Lisburn Rangers W creates 173% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lisburn Rangers W
2.75
Derry City W
1.40

allows per match

Lisburn Rangers W
0.75
Derry City W
3.10

finishing

Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par
Derry City W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Rangers W ↓

Derry City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lisburn Rangers W or draw
89%
Lisburn Rangers W or Derry City W
86%
Draw or Derry City W
26%

Winning margin

Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+
54%
Derry City W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals
94%
Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals
78%
Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals
55%
Derry City W 1+ goals
66%
Derry City W 2+ goals
29%
Derry City W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)
87%
Derry City W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Rangers W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Derry City W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.75 + Derry City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.92

Derry City W attack 1.40 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Lisburn Rangers W scores more
74%
level
14%
Derry City W scores more
11%

Lisburn Rangers W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Lisburn Rangers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
G. Conway
39'
T. Bell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Lisburn Rangers W 2–0 Derry City W

Lisburn Rangers W beat Derry City W 2-0 in Premiership Women on July 4, 2025.

Goals: G. Conway (8'), T. Bell (39').

The match was played at Crewe Park in Lisburn.