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Derry City W vs Lisburn Rangers W — Premiership Women 2026

Derry City W
Derry City W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lisburn Rangers W
Lisburn Rangers W
G. Conway 90'
9/12/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 14The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Derry City W9%
×Draw17%
Lisburn Rangers W74%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City W
0.70
Lisburn Rangers W
2.34

Lisburn Rangers W creates 234% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Derry City W
1.15
Lisburn Rangers W
2.00

allows per match

Derry City W
2.69
Lisburn Rangers W
0.25

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par
Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Lisburn Rangers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw
26%
Derry City W or Lisburn Rangers W
83%
Draw or Lisburn Rangers W
91%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+
2%
Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals
50%
Derry City W 2+ goals
16%
Derry City W 3+ goals
3%
Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals
90%
Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals
67%
Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)
11%
Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

Lisburn Rangers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.15 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.70

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.00 + Derry City W defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Derry City W scores more
9%
level
17%
Lisburn Rangers W scores more
74%

Lisburn Rangers W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Lisburn Rangers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
G. Conway

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derry City W vs Lisburn Rangers W

Lisburn Rangers W beat Derry City W 1-0 in Premiership Women on September 12, 2025.

Goals: G. Conway (90').

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Derry.