Lisburn Distillery 1–4 Armagh City: Result & Stats

Lisburn Distillery

FT

1 – 4

Armagh City

4/15/2023

League #561 · Relegation Round - 1New Grosvenor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lisburn Distillery31%

×Draw25%

Armagh City44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lisburn DistilleryExpected goals in this matchArmagh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.56

Lisburn Distillery

1.27

Armagh City

1.56

Armagh City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

1.04

creates per match

1.43

1.70

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Lisburn Distillery

1.04

Armagh City

1.43

allows per match

Lisburn Distillery

1.70

Armagh City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Distillery ↓

Armagh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lisburn Distillery or draw

56%

Lisburn Distillery or Armagh City

75%

Draw or Armagh City

69%

Winning margin

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+

13%

Armagh City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals

72%

Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals

36%

Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals

14%

Armagh City 1+ goals

79%

Armagh City 2+ goals

46%

Armagh City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)

41%

Armagh City (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Distillery at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.04 + Armagh City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Armagh City attack 1.43 + Lisburn Distillery defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lisburn Distillery scores more

31%

level

25%

Armagh City scores more

44%

Armagh City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff