Armagh City 1–2 Lisburn Distillery: Result & Stats

Armagh City

FT

1 – 2

Lisburn Distillery

3/18/2023

League #561 · Round 20Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Armagh City44%

×Draw22%

Lisburn Distillery34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armagh CityExpected goals in this matchLisburn Distillery

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.65

Armagh City

1.90

Lisburn Distillery

1.65

Armagh City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.79

creates per match

1.79

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Armagh City

1.79

Lisburn Distillery

1.79

allows per match

Armagh City

1.50

Lisburn Distillery

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Lisburn Distillery →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw

66%

Armagh City or Lisburn Distillery

78%

Draw or Lisburn Distillery

56%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+

24%

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals

85%

Armagh City 2+ goals

56%

Armagh City 3+ goals

29%

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals

81%

Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals

49%

Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)

56%

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Lisburn Distillery away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.79 + Lisburn Distillery defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.79 + Armagh City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Armagh City scores more

44%

level

22%

Lisburn Distillery scores more

34%

Armagh City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff