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Liria Prizren vs Fushë Kosova — Superliga 2019

Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
9/2/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 4Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Liria Prizren42%
×Draw27%
Fushë Kosova32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liria Prizren
1.38
Fushë Kosova
1.17

Liria Prizren creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Liria Prizren
0.58
Fushë Kosova
0.33

allows per match

Liria Prizren
2.00
Fushë Kosova
2.17

finishing

Liria Prizren+0.00on par
Fushë Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liria Prizren ↓

Fushë Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Liria Prizren or draw
68%
Liria Prizren or Fushë Kosova
73%
Draw or Fushë Kosova
58%

Winning margin

Liria Prizren wins by 2+
19%
Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Liria Prizren 1+ goals
75%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
40%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
16%
Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
69%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
33%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
57%
Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liria Prizren at home — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Fushë Kosova away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liria Prizren attack 0.58 + Fushë Kosova defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fushë Kosova attack 0.33 + Liria Prizren defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Liria Prizren scores more
42%
level
27%
Fushë Kosova scores more
32%

Liria Prizren at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Liria Prizren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Liria Prizren 2–1 Fushë Kosova

Liria Prizren beat Fushë Kosova 2-1 in Superliga on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi in Prizren.