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Fushë Kosova vs Liria Prizren — Superliga 2019

Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
4/27/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 31Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fushë Kosova48%
×Draw25%
Liria Prizren27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fushë Kosova
1.56
Liria Prizren
1.11

Fushë Kosova creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fushë Kosova
0.78
Liria Prizren
0.83

allows per match

Fushë Kosova
1.39
Liria Prizren
2.33

finishing

Fushë Kosova+0.00on par
Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fushë Kosova ↓

Liria Prizren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fushë Kosova or draw
73%
Fushë Kosova or Liria Prizren
75%
Draw or Liria Prizren
52%

Winning margin

Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
24%
Liria Prizren wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
79%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
46%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
21%
Liria Prizren 1+ goals
67%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
30%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
64%
Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fushë Kosova at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fushë Kosova attack 0.78 + Liria Prizren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Liria Prizren attack 0.83 + Fushë Kosova defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fushë Kosova scores more
48%
level
25%
Liria Prizren scores more
27%

Fushë Kosova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fushë Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Fushë Kosova 0–2 Liria Prizren

Liria Prizren beat Fushë Kosova 2-0 in Superliga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi in Lipjan.