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Liria Prizren vs Dukagjini — Cup 2019

Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
FT
2 – 4
Dukagjini
Dukagjiniadvanced
12/2/2021CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Liria Prizren20%
×Draw20%
Dukagjini60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liria Prizren
1.25
Dukagjini
2.28

Dukagjini creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Liria Prizren
1.40
Dukagjini
2.56

allows per match

Liria Prizren
2.00
Dukagjini
1.11

finishing

Liria Prizren+0.00on par
Dukagjini+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liria Prizren ↓

Dukagjini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Liria Prizren or draw
40%
Liria Prizren or Dukagjini
80%
Draw or Dukagjini
80%

Winning margin

Liria Prizren wins by 2+
8%
Dukagjini wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Liria Prizren 1+ goals
71%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
36%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
13%
Dukagjini 1+ goals
90%
Dukagjini 2+ goals
66%
Dukagjini 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
25%
Dukagjini (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liria Prizren at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Dukagjini away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liria Prizren attack 1.40 + Dukagjini defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dukagjini attack 2.56 + Liria Prizren defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Liria Prizren scores more
20%
level
20%
Dukagjini scores more
60%

Dukagjini at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dukagjini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Liria Prizren 2–4 Dukagjini

Dukagjini beat Liria Prizren 4-2 in Cup on December 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi in Prizren.