Dukagjini 0–0 Liria Prizren: Result & Stats

Dukagjini

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Liria Prizren

8/27/2023

Superliga · Round 3Stadiumi 18 Qershori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dukagjini56%

×Draw24%

Liria Prizren20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DukagjiniExpected goals in this matchLiria Prizren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.92

Dukagjini

1.71

Liria Prizren

0.92

Dukagjini creates 86% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 18 away

1.09

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Dukagjini

1.09

Liria Prizren

0.83

allows per match

Dukagjini

1.00

Liria Prizren

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukagjini+0.00on par

Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukagjini ↓

Liria Prizren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dukagjini or draw

80%

Dukagjini or Liria Prizren

76%

Draw or Liria Prizren

44%

Winning margin

Dukagjini wins by 2+

31%

Liria Prizren wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dukagjini 1+ goals

82%

Dukagjini 2+ goals

51%

Dukagjini 3+ goals

24%

Liria Prizren 1+ goals

60%

Liria Prizren 2+ goals

23%

Liria Prizren 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dukagjini (draw refunded)

73%

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukagjini at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 106 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukagjini attack 1.09 + Liria Prizren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Liria Prizren attack 0.83 + Dukagjini defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dukagjini scores more

56%

level

24%

Liria Prizren scores more

20%

Dukagjini at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dukagjini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff