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Liria Prizren vs Ballkani — Superliga 2019

Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
FT
0 – 1
Ballkani
Ballkani
8/13/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 1Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Liria Prizren16%
×Draw23%
Ballkani60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liria Prizren
0.78
Ballkani
1.74

Ballkani creates 123% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 124 away

creates per match

Liria Prizren
0.58
Ballkani
1.48

allows per match

Liria Prizren
2.00
Ballkani
0.99

finishing

Liria Prizren+0.00on par
Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liria Prizren ↓

Ballkani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Liria Prizren or draw
40%
Liria Prizren or Ballkani
77%
Draw or Ballkani
84%

Winning margin

Liria Prizren wins by 2+
5%
Ballkani wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Liria Prizren 1+ goals
54%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
18%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
4%
Ballkani 1+ goals
82%
Ballkani 2+ goals
52%
Ballkani 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
21%
Ballkani (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liria Prizren at home — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Ballkani away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liria Prizren attack 0.58 + Ballkani defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.78

Ballkani attack 1.48 + Liria Prizren defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Liria Prizren scores more
16%
level
23%
Ballkani scores more
60%

Ballkani at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liria Prizren vs Ballkani

Ballkani beat Liria Prizren 1-0 in Superliga on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Përparim Thaçi in Prizren.