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Ballkani vs Liria Prizren — Superliga 2019

Ballkani
Ballkani
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Liria Prizren
Liria Prizren
10/20/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 10Stadiumi i qytetit Suharekë

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ballkani68%
×Draw19%
Liria Prizren13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballkani
2.20
Liria Prizren
0.85

Ballkani creates 159% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ballkani
2.07
Liria Prizren
0.83

allows per match

Ballkani
0.88
Liria Prizren
2.33

finishing

Ballkani+0.00on par
Liria Prizren+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballkani ↓

Liria Prizren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ballkani or draw
87%
Ballkani or Liria Prizren
81%
Draw or Liria Prizren
32%

Winning margin

Ballkani wins by 2+
44%
Liria Prizren wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ballkani 1+ goals
89%
Ballkani 2+ goals
64%
Ballkani 3+ goals
37%
Liria Prizren 1+ goals
57%
Liria Prizren 2+ goals
21%
Liria Prizren 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ballkani (draw refunded)
84%
Liria Prizren (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballkani at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.88 · 125 matches

Liria Prizren away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballkani attack 2.07 + Liria Prizren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.20

Liria Prizren attack 0.83 + Ballkani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ballkani scores more
68%
level
19%
Liria Prizren scores more
13%

Ballkani at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Ballkani 4–1 Liria Prizren

Ballkani beat Liria Prizren 4-1 in Superliga on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit Suharekë in Suva Reka.