Liptovský Mikuláš 1–0 Zlaté Moravce: Result & Stats

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zlaté Moravce

P. Voško 28'

8/31/2024

2. liga · Round 6Štadión Liptovský Mikuláš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš45%

×Draw24%

Zlaté Moravce31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchZlaté Moravce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.33

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.64

Zlaté Moravce

1.33

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 23% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 28 away

1.96

creates per match

1.57

1.10

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.96

Zlaté Moravce

1.57

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.10

Zlaté Moravce

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Zlaté Moravce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

69%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Zlaté Moravce

76%

Draw or Zlaté Moravce

55%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

23%

Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

81%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

49%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

23%

Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals

74%

Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals

38%

Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

59%

Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Zlaté Moravce away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.96 + Zlaté Moravce defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.64

Zlaté Moravce attack 1.57 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

45%

level

24%

Zlaté Moravce scores more

31%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

27'

28'

31'

36'

46'

J. Holp← F. Balaj

58'

M. Gono← D. Duga

63'

65'

73'

76'

78'

78'

84'

89'

Š. Penzeš← M. Helebrand

90+3'

K. Jamonts← Ľ. Laura

Liptovský

Zlaté

33

Richter

4

▼

22

21

3

34

▼

Greššák

14

▼

11

10

29

45

▼

99

24

14

18

▼

Marek

10

Bartoš

8

Gerát

11

▼

Staš

12

Mráz

22

Shudeiwa

19

▼

Laura

17

⚽

Voško

Manager: I. Lišivka

73'▲A. Macejko←▼G. Marek

78'▲M. Bobček←▼T. Staš

90+3'▲K. Jamonts←▼Ľ. Laura

Liptovský Mikuláš substitutes

7Macejko15Bobček21Jamonts1Húska6Krajčí28Jurčo

Manager: R. Hudec

46'▲J. Holp←▼F. Balaj

58'▲M. Gono←▼D. Duga

78'▲D. Šmiga←▼L. Greššák

89'▲Š. Penzeš←▼M. Helebrand

Zlaté Moravce substitutes

26Holp6Gono9Šmiga17Penzeš5Chana16Mondek30Stareček72Vajs89Halo

2. liga: Liptovský Mikuláš 1–0 Zlaté Moravce

Liptovský Mikuláš beat Zlaté Moravce 1-0 in 2. liga on August 31, 2024.

Goals: P. Voško (28').

The match was played at Štadión Liptovský Mikuláš in Liptovský Mikuláš.

Liptovský Mikuláš vs Zlaté Moravce — 2. liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. liga: Liptovský Mikuláš 1–0 Zlaté Moravce