Liptovský Mikuláš 1–1 Zlaté Moravce: Result & Stats

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zlaté Moravce

R. Václavik 45'

Stephano Almeida 16'

5/6/2023

League #332 · Relegation Round - 8Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš32%

×Draw32%

Zlaté Moravce36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchZlaté Moravce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.98

Liptovský Mikuláš

0.92

Zlaté Moravce

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

1.14

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.00

Zlaté Moravce

0.83

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.14

Zlaté Moravce

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Zlaté Moravce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

64%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Zlaté Moravce

68%

Draw or Zlaté Moravce

68%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

12%

Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

60%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

23%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

7%

Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals

62%

Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals

26%

Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

48%

Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Zlaté Moravce away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.00 + Zlaté Moravce defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Zlaté Moravce attack 0.83 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

32%

level

32%

Zlaté Moravce scores more

36%

Zlaté Moravce at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zlaté Moravce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Stephano Almeida↳ A. Sloboda

19'

20'

24'

37'

41'

45'

R. Václavik↳ R. Bartoš

52'

Martin Nečas

53'

K. Ikugar← R. Čerepkai

54'

54'

61'

73'

78'

E. Jendrišek← P. Voško

78'

D. Fadairo← A. Gaži

87'

N. Gavrylyuk← A. Šuvalija

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LiptovskýZlaté

Overview

52%Possession48%

17Total Shots7

5Corners5

11Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots7

8On Target2

5Off Target2

4Blocked3

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Liptovský Mikuláš vs Zlaté Moravce

Liptovský Mikuláš and Zlaté Moravce drew 1-1 in League #332 on May 6, 2023.

Goals: Stephano Almeida (16'), R. Václavik (45').

Liptovský Mikuláš controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad in Poprad.

Liptovský Mikuláš vs Zlaté Moravce — League #332 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Liptovský Mikuláš vs Zlaté Moravce