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Liptovský Mikuláš vs Žilina II — 2. liga 2019

Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Žilina II
Žilina II
3/9/20242. liga2. liga · Round 19Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš53%
×Draw23%
Žilina II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.86
Žilina II
1.20

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 55% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.85
Žilina II
1.30

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.10
Žilina II
1.87

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par
Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Žilina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw
75%
Liptovský Mikuláš or Žilina II
77%
Draw or Žilina II
47%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
30%
Žilina II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
84%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
55%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
28%
Žilina II 1+ goals
70%
Žilina II 2+ goals
34%
Žilina II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
68%
Žilina II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.85 + Žilina II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.86

Žilina II attack 1.30 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
53%
level
23%
Žilina II scores more
25%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liptovský Mikuláš vs Žilina II

Liptovský Mikuláš beat Žilina II 5-2 in 2. liga on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.