Liptovský Mikuláš 2–3 Baník Ostrava II

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Baník Ostrava II

Unknown 81', 71'

Unknown 76', 67', 33'

1/27/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš30%

×Draw20%

Baník Ostrava II49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

2.29

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.78

Baník Ostrava II

2.29

Baník Ostrava II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

2.13

creates per match

2.78

1.80

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

2.13

Baník Ostrava II

2.78

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.80

Baník Ostrava II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Baník Ostrava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

51%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Baník Ostrava II

80%

Draw or Baník Ostrava II

70%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

15%

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

83%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

53%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

26%

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

90%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

66%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

38%

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 2.13 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.78 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

30%

level

20%

Baník Ostrava II scores more

49%

Baník Ostrava II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

67'

71'

76'

81'

Statistics

LiptovskýBaník

Overview

2Corners7