Baník Ostrava II vs Liptovský Mikuláš

Baník Ostrava II

CANC

12:00

Liptovský Mikuláš

1/13/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Baník Ostrava II69%

×Draw15%

Liptovský Mikuláš16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava IIExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Mikuláš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.23

1.54

Baník Ostrava II

3.23

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.54

Baník Ostrava II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

4.33

creates per match

1.75

1.33

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II

4.33

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.75

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II

1.33

Liptovský Mikuláš

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw

84%

Baník Ostrava II or Liptovský Mikuláš

85%

Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš

31%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

50%

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

96%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

82%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

61%

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

79%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

45%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

81%

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 4.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 4.33 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 3.23

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.75 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more

69%

level

15%

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

16%

Baník Ostrava II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff