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Liptovský Hrádok vs Liptovská Štiavnica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
FT
4 – 0
Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
4/30/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 21Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok65%
×Draw19%
Liptovská Štiavnica16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
2.29
Liptovská Štiavnica
1.06

Liptovský Hrádok creates 116% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.74

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Liptovská Štiavnica
2.87

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
84%
Liptovský Hrádok or Liptovská Štiavnica
81%
Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica
35%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
42%
Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
90%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
66%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
40%
Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
65%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
29%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
80%
Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.29

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
65%
level
19%
Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
16%

Liptovský Hrádok at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Liptovský Hrádok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Liptovský Hrádok 4–0 Liptovská Štiavnica

Liptovský Hrádok beat Liptovská Štiavnica 4-0 in 3. liga - Center on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok in Liptovský Hrádok.