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Liptovská Štiavnica vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
FT
3 – 1
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
9/27/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 9Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica57%
×Draw20%
Liptovský Hrádok23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovská Štiavnica
2.34
Liptovský Hrádok
1.43

Liptovská Štiavnica creates 64% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.82
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.86
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw
77%
Liptovská Štiavnica or Liptovský Hrádok
80%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
43%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
36%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
90%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
67%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
41%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
76%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
42%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
71%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.34

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
57%
level
20%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
23%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Liptovská Štiavnica 3–1 Liptovský Hrádok

Liptovská Štiavnica beat Liptovský Hrádok 3-1 in 3. liga - Center on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica in Liptovská Štiavnica.