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Liptovský Hrádok vs Jednota Bánová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
FT
0 – 4
Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
8/23/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 4Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok46%
×Draw23%
Jednota Bánová31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
1.75
Jednota Bánová
1.40

Liptovský Hrádok creates 25% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Jednota Bánová
1.40

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Jednota Bánová
1.80

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Jednota Bánová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
69%
Liptovský Hrádok or Jednota Bánová
77%
Draw or Jednota Bánová
54%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
24%
Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
83%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
52%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
25%
Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
75%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
41%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
60%
Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Jednota Bánová away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jednota Bánová attack 1.40 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
46%
level
23%
Jednota Bánová scores more
31%

Liptovský Hrádok at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Liptovský Hrádok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Liptovský Hrádok 0–4 Jednota Bánová

Jednota Bánová beat Liptovský Hrádok 4-0 in 3. liga - Center on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok in Liptovský Hrádok.