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Jednota Bánová vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
FT
2 – 0
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
6/18/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 28Futbalové ihrisko Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jednota Bánová66%
×Draw19%
Liptovský Hrádok15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jednota Bánová
2.25
Liptovský Hrádok
0.96

Jednota Bánová creates 134% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 22 away

creates per match

Jednota Bánová
1.64
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Jednota Bánová
0.92
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw
85%
Jednota Bánová or Liptovský Hrádok
81%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
34%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
43%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
89%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
65%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
39%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
62%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
25%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
82%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.64 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Jednota Bánová defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more
66%
level
19%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
15%

Jednota Bánová at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jednota Bánová vs Liptovský Hrádok

Jednota Bánová beat Liptovský Hrádok 2-0 in 3. liga - Center on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalové ihrisko Bánová in Žilina.